ウォーレン・バフェットの日本商社株への投資は成功するか

9/29日経、Deep Insight エコノミスト「バフェット氏株主重視へ新風」の記事。

バークシャー・ハザウエイ(BH)の日本商社株への65億ドル投資について新たな見方を提供しているのか興味を持ったが、結論は、成功するかもしれないし、失敗するかもしれないというどっちつかずであった。

 

65億ドルの投資は、BHの資産運用額1,400億ドルから見れば極わずかであるが、米国外の投資としては最大である。

商社株への投資は、従来のウォーレン・バフェット(WB)の投資原則から逸脱しているように見える。

WBの投資原則とは、わかりやすい企業へ投資すること、投資先は割安で安定的に収益を上げることである。商社は、この原則に合わない。

エコノミストは、WBの常軌を外れたかのような投資手法は理にかなっているかもしれないと述べる。

・安倍政権以来日本企業は株主重視に傾いている。

・大手商社は、エネルギー事業を大規模に展開して、コロナ後にエネルギー需要拡大の恩恵を受ける。

・大手商社は、人材の宝庫である。

・大手商社の複雑な組織や事業から利益を生み出せるのは、米国最大のコングロマリットであるBHである。

 

エコノミストは、成功が約束されているわけではないと締めくくる。

 

NTTがドコモを完全子会社にする、大きいことはよいことなのか

28日の終値2775円にたいし、4割のプレミアムで3900円で、33.8%の株をTOBで取得する(総額4.2兆円)。

28日の時価総額で、NTT自身の時価総額は上場子会社分を除くと次のようになる(9/29日経夕刊)(単位:兆円)。

NTT 8.9-ドコモ 8.9×66.2%-NTTデータ 1.9×54.2%=8.9-6.9=2.0

 

NTTにとって、完全子会社化以外に完全分離の選択肢もあった。

「研究投資が加速し、顧客サービスも向上するのなら止める理由はない」(総務省幹部、9/30日経)としているが、そうなる保証はないし、NTT株主の立場からは、NTTの企業評価額が高まるかは疑問である。携帯通信料が4割安くなる見通しで、4割のプレミアムは正当化できるのだろうか。

NTT株主にドコモ株を割り当て、NTTはダウンサイズする選択肢もあったはずである。

 

完全子会社化の大義名分は、親子上場の解消である。不安点は、国がNTTの1/3以上の株主となっていて、ドコモへの国の介入が強まることである。

トランプ大統領の納税記録をNYT が入手する、2016年には所得税750ドルしか払っていない

大金持ちなのに、貧乏人以下の税金を払っている。所得から過去の損失を控除しているからのようだ。もし記事の見出しにあるように、years of tax avoidance であれば、犯罪になる。

Donald J. Trump paid $750 in federal income taxes the year he won the presidency. In his first year in the White House, he paid another $750.

He had paid no income taxes at all in 10 of the previous 15 years — largely because he reported losing much more money than he made.

 

9/27NYT Trump’s taxes show chronic losses and years of tax avoidance

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/09/27/us/donald-trump-taxes.html

The Times obtained Donald Trump’s tax information extending over more than two decades, revealing struggling properties, vast write-offs, an audit battle and hundreds of millions in debt coming due.

 

 

By Russ Buettner, Susanne Craig and Mike McIntire

 

Sept. 27, 2020

 

 

1731

Donald J. Trump paid $750 in federal income taxes the year he won the presidency. In his first year in the White House, he paid another $750.

 

He had paid no income taxes at all in 10 of the previous 15 years — largely because he reported losing much more money than he made.

 

As the president wages a re-election campaign that polls say he is in danger of losing, his finances are under stress, beset by losses and hundreds of millions of dollars in debt coming due that he has personally guaranteed. Also hanging over him is a decade-long audit battle with the Internal Revenue Service over the legitimacy of a $72.9 million tax refund that he claimed, and received, after declaring huge losses. An adverse ruling could cost him more than $100 million.

 

 

The tax returns that Mr. Trump has long fought to keep private tell a story fundamentally different from the one he has sold to the American public. His reports to the I.R.S. portray a businessman who takes in hundreds of millions of dollars a year yet racks up chronic losses that he aggressively employs to avoid paying taxes. Now, with his financial challenges mounting, the records show that he depends more and more on making money from businesses that put him in potential and often direct conflict of interest with his job as president.

 

The New York Times has obtained tax-return data extending over more than two decades for Mr. Trump and the hundreds of companies that make up his business organization, including detailed information from his first two years in office. It does not include his personal returns for 2018 or 2019. This article offers an overview of The Times’s findings; additional articles will be published in the coming weeks.

 

The returns are some of the most sought-after, and speculated-about, records in recent memory. In Mr. Trump’s nearly four years in office — and across his endlessly hyped decades in the public eye — journalists, prosecutors, opposition politicians and conspiracists have, with limited success, sought to excavate the enigmas of his finances. By their very nature, the filings will leave many questions unanswered, many questioners unfulfilled. They comprise information that Mr. Trump has disclosed to the I.R.S., not the findings of an independent financial examination. They report that Mr. Trump owns hundreds of millions of dollars in valuable assets, but they do not reveal his true wealth. Nor do they reveal any previously unreported connections to Russia.

トランプ大統領の納税記録をNYT が入手する、2016年には所得税750ドルしか払っていない

大金持ちなのに、貧乏人以下の税金を払っている。所得から過去の損失を控除しているからのようだ。もし記事の見出しにあるように、years of tax avoidance であれば、犯罪になる。

Donald J. Trump paid $750 in federal income taxes the year he won the presidency. In his first year in the White House, he paid another $750.

He had paid no income taxes at all in 10 of the previous 15 years — largely because he reported losing much more money than he made.

 

9/27NYT Trump’s taxes show chronic losses and years of tax avoidance

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/09/27/us/donald-trump-taxes.html

The Times obtained Donald Trump’s tax information extending over more than two decades, revealing struggling properties, vast write-offs, an audit battle and hundreds of millions in debt coming due.

 

 

By Russ Buettner, Susanne Craig and Mike McIntire

 

Sept. 27, 2020

 

 

1731

Donald J. Trump paid $750 in federal income taxes the year he won the presidency. In his first year in the White House, he paid another $750.

 

He had paid no income taxes at all in 10 of the previous 15 years — largely because he reported losing much more money than he made.

 

As the president wages a re-election campaign that polls say he is in danger of losing, his finances are under stress, beset by losses and hundreds of millions of dollars in debt coming due that he has personally guaranteed. Also hanging over him is a decade-long audit battle with the Internal Revenue Service over the legitimacy of a $72.9 million tax refund that he claimed, and received, after declaring huge losses. An adverse ruling could cost him more than $100 million.

 

 

The tax returns that Mr. Trump has long fought to keep private tell a story fundamentally different from the one he has sold to the American public. His reports to the I.R.S. portray a businessman who takes in hundreds of millions of dollars a year yet racks up chronic losses that he aggressively employs to avoid paying taxes. Now, with his financial challenges mounting, the records show that he depends more and more on making money from businesses that put him in potential and often direct conflict of interest with his job as president.

 

The New York Times has obtained tax-return data extending over more than two decades for Mr. Trump and the hundreds of companies that make up his business organization, including detailed information from his first two years in office. It does not include his personal returns for 2018 or 2019. This article offers an overview of The Times’s findings; additional articles will be published in the coming weeks.

 

The returns are some of the most sought-after, and speculated-about, records in recent memory. In Mr. Trump’s nearly four years in office — and across his endlessly hyped decades in the public eye — journalists, prosecutors, opposition politicians and conspiracists have, with limited success, sought to excavate the enigmas of his finances. By their very nature, the filings will leave many questions unanswered, many questioners unfulfilled. They comprise information that Mr. Trump has disclosed to the I.R.S., not the findings of an independent financial examination. They report that Mr. Trump owns hundreds of millions of dollars in valuable assets, but they do not reveal his true wealth. Nor do they reveal any previously unreported connections to Russia.

トランプ大統領の納税記録をNYT が入手する、2016年には所得税750ドルしか払っていない

大金持ちなのに、貧乏人以下の税金を払っている。所得から過去の損失を控除しているからのようだ。もし記事の見出しにあるように、years of tax avoidance であれば、犯罪になる。

Donald J. Trump paid $750 in federal income taxes the year he won the presidency. In his first year in the White House, he paid another $750.

He had paid no income taxes at all in 10 of the previous 15 years — largely because he reported losing much more money than he made.

 

9/27NYT Trump’s taxes show chronic losses and years of tax avoidance

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/09/27/us/donald-trump-taxes.html

The Times obtained Donald Trump’s tax information extending over more than two decades, revealing struggling properties, vast write-offs, an audit battle and hundreds of millions in debt coming due.

 

 

By Russ Buettner, Susanne Craig and Mike McIntire

 

Sept. 27, 2020

 

 

1731

Donald J. Trump paid $750 in federal income taxes the year he won the presidency. In his first year in the White House, he paid another $750.

 

He had paid no income taxes at all in 10 of the previous 15 years — largely because he reported losing much more money than he made.

 

As the president wages a re-election campaign that polls say he is in danger of losing, his finances are under stress, beset by losses and hundreds of millions of dollars in debt coming due that he has personally guaranteed. Also hanging over him is a decade-long audit battle with the Internal Revenue Service over the legitimacy of a $72.9 million tax refund that he claimed, and received, after declaring huge losses. An adverse ruling could cost him more than $100 million.

 

 

The tax returns that Mr. Trump has long fought to keep private tell a story fundamentally different from the one he has sold to the American public. His reports to the I.R.S. portray a businessman who takes in hundreds of millions of dollars a year yet racks up chronic losses that he aggressively employs to avoid paying taxes. Now, with his financial challenges mounting, the records show that he depends more and more on making money from businesses that put him in potential and often direct conflict of interest with his job as president.

 

The New York Times has obtained tax-return data extending over more than two decades for Mr. Trump and the hundreds of companies that make up his business organization, including detailed information from his first two years in office. It does not include his personal returns for 2018 or 2019. This article offers an overview of The Times’s findings; additional articles will be published in the coming weeks.

 

The returns are some of the most sought-after, and speculated-about, records in recent memory. In Mr. Trump’s nearly four years in office — and across his endlessly hyped decades in the public eye — journalists, prosecutors, opposition politicians and conspiracists have, with limited success, sought to excavate the enigmas of his finances. By their very nature, the filings will leave many questions unanswered, many questioners unfulfilled. They comprise information that Mr. Trump has disclosed to the I.R.S., not the findings of an independent financial examination. They report that Mr. Trump owns hundreds of millions of dollars in valuable assets, but they do not reveal his true wealth. Nor do they reveal any previously unreported connections to Russia.

コロナを鎮めた韓国の作戦に学ぶべきこと

WSJが伝える韓国の成功要因は、1.集権化した管理、2.広範囲の検査、3.早急な接触追跡、であった。日本はすべてに後れを取っている。

日韓の困難な外交関係を棚に上げても、日本は学ぶべきことが多い。

 

9/25WSJ THE COVID STORM

TWO FACES OF COVID | How South Korea Successfully Managed Coronavirus

The country has blended technology and testing like no other to stay on top of outbreaks, limiting the pandemic’s economic fallout. Some of the keys to its success: centralized control, widespread testing and fast contact tracing.