ウクライナ戦争、和平交渉の行方
和平交渉が行われているようだ。行方は分からないが、双方にとって長引かせるメリットはないように思われる。FTの記事では、条件が整えば妥結するように読める。双方にとって落としどころは、「“Every side needs a win,” the person said. “He needs to be able to sell it to the people. Putin can say that we wanted to stop Ukraine joining Nato and putting foreign bases and missiles in its territory. If they do that, he can say, ‘I got it.’”」である。
正義やメンツにこだわっても、犠牲が増えるだけである。
Financial Times（日付不明）
Ukraine and Russia explore neutrality plan in peace talks
Fifteen-point draft deal would involve Kyiv renouncing Nato ambitions in return for security guarantees
https://www.ft.com/content/7b341e46-d375-4817-be67-802b7fa77ef1
Ukraine and Russia have made significant progress on a tentative peace plan including a ceasefire and Russian withdrawal if Kyiv declares neutrality and accepts limits on its armed forces, according to five people briefed on the talks.
Ukrainian and Russian negotiators discussed the proposed deal in full for the first time on Monday(3/14)
, said two of the people. The 15-point draft considered that day would involve Kyiv renouncing its ambitions to join Nato and promising not to host foreign military bases or weaponry in exchange for protection from allies such as the US, UK and Turkey, the people said.
However, the nature of western guarantees for Ukrainian security — and their acceptability to Moscow — could prove to be a big obstacle to any deal, as could the status of the country’s territories seized by Russia and its proxies in 2014. A 1994 agreement underpinning Ukrainian security failed to prevent the Kremlin’s aggression against its neighbour.
Although Moscow and Kyiv both said they had made progress on the terms of a deal, Ukrainian officials are sceptical Russia’s President Vladimir Putin is fully committed to peace and worry that Moscow could be buying time to regroup its forces and resume its offensive.
“There’s a likelihood this is trickery and illusion. They lie about everything — Crimea, the build-up of troops on the border, and the ‘hysteria’ over the invasion,” said a Ukrainian source briefed on the talks.
“We need to put pressure on them until they have no other choice” but to agree a peace deal, the person added.
Putin showed no sign of compromise on Wednesday, vowing Moscow would achieve all of its war aims in Ukraine. “We will never allow Ukraine to become a stronghold of aggressive actions against our country,” he said.
But a Russian source briefed on the talks said the proposed settlement, if agreed, could give both sides a credible way to declare victory in the war.
“Every side needs a win,” the person said. “He needs to be able to sell it to the people. Putin can say that we wanted to stop Ukraine joining Nato and putting foreign bases and missiles in its territory. If they do that, he can say, ‘I got it.’”
